Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 65.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The predictive model expects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- In this week’s game, Garrett Wilson is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 96th percentile among wide receivers with 10.0 targets.
- Garrett Wilson has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
Cons
- The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- The New York offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson rates as one of the weakest WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
