Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Titans vs. Falcons
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-115) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 1.9% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- In this week’s contest, DeAndre Hopkins is predicted by the projections to rank in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets.
- With a sizeable 28.6% Target Share (94th percentile) this year, DeAndre Hopkins rates as one of the WRs with the most usage in football.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 52.1% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are projected by our trusted projection set to call just 60.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
- The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
- DeAndre Hopkins has put up substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) vs. wideouts this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
