Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Giants vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-115) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 13.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Commanders to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect Logan Thomas to accumulate 5.0 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- With an extraordinary 15.0% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas stands among the tight ends with the highest volume in the league.
- Logan Thomas’s 37.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents a a meaningful boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 25.0 rate.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the predictive model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Giants, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
- The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) to tight ends this year (62.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
