Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Vikings
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+102/-132).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+102) after it opened @ 57.5 (-112).
Pros
- The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.9% run rate.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The model projects Miles Sanders to notch 17.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- After taking on 50.6% of his team’s rush attempts last season, Miles Sanders has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, now sitting at 64.5%.
- The Panthers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
- Miles Sanders’s rushing effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a mere 3.16 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.84 figure last year.
- The Vikings defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.45 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
