Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Raiders vs. Steelers
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 238.5 (-148) after it opened @ 239.5 (-117).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 66.8% to 72.0%.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 8.64 yards-per-target while checking in at the 97th percentile.
Cons
- The Raiders are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted a mere 27.8 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 22nd percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
