Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 42.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- Dameon Pierce has been on the field for 60.3% of his offense’s snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Dameon Pierce’s ground effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching just 2.56 yards-per-carry vs a 4.22 figure last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.28 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best collection of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
