Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Calvin Ridley to accrue 9.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.35 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
- Calvin Ridley has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 54.1% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 15th percentile among WRs
- The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 126.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
- The Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
