Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (+100) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.43 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to garner 17.7 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.87 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Tony Pollard has been less successful in generating extra rushing yardage this season, averaging 2.56 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.82 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
