Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Lions vs. Falcons
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (+105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-125) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to accumulate 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
- Drake London has been a key part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 28.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
- Drake London has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 11th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
