Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Lions vs. Falcons
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 266.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 266.5 (-110) after it opened @ 270.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Jared Goff has attempted 36.5 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 76th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Jared Goff has been among the top quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 259.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
- Jared Goff’s passing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 65.1% to 71.7%.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 8.00 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in football.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.70 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards
266
Passing Yards
