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Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

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Travis Kelce

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 17

Chiefs vs. Broncos

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).

Pros

  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Travis Kelce has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (86.0) this year than he did last year (76.0).
  • The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (57.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons

  • The Chiefs are a big 12.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards

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