Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-120) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).

Pros

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 20.0 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 63.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (88th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in the league (163 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards