Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (+112/-154).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 246.5 (-154) after it opened @ 249.5 (-114).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Kirk Cousins has been among the best QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 255.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (64.5%).
The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.
The New England Patriots cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
299
Passing Yards