Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bears vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-110) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for a lot more yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a terrific 70.2% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing effectiveness has improved this season, notching 8.56 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.84 mark last season.
- The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.9 passes this week, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards
242
Passing Yards
