Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-137) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 7.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
- Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.5%) to wide receivers this year (61.5%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has shown good efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.74 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
