Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (+104) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- Aaron Jones has received 48.4% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- Aaron Jones has grinded out 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (80th percentile).
- Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness (5.34 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (81st percentile among RBs).
- The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.
Cons
- The Packers are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 32.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have run for the least yards in football (just 76 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
