Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (112.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Stefon Diggs has compiled far fewer air yards this season (110.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
- The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 131.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards
92
Receiving Yards
