Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-125) after it opened @ 13.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game in the league (56.0) versus TEs this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (77.9%) to TEs this year (77.9%).
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in football.
- Austin Hooper has accrued quite a few less receiving yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
