Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to garner 7.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among TEs.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- George Kittle’s sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 75.6% to 86.3%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- George Kittle has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (58.0 per game).
- George Kittle’s 36.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 51.7.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
