Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 301.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 301.5 (-135) after it opened @ 293.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 42.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.21 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
310
Passing Yards
310
Passing Yards
