Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 254.5 (-110) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best precision passers in the league since the start of last season with a terrific 67.6% Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the most yards in the NFL (282.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.7 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards
247
Passing Yards
