Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 13.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has generated 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (96th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 11th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (52.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.0% in games he has played).
- The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
