Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mitchell TrubiskyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Mitchell Trubisky’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 217.5 (-131) after it opened @ 222.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 64.1 plays per game.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Mitchell Trubisky has attempted just 6.7 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 20th percentile among QBs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
- Mitchell Trubisky has been among the weakest passers in football since the start of last season, averaging 36.0 yards per game while grading out in the 18th percentile.
- Mitchell Trubisky has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a 56.2% Completion%, grading out in the 25th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards
236
Passing Yards
