Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-120).

Pros

The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 6.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards