Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
49ers vs. Giants
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-139) after it opened @ 54.5 (-119).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense results when facing better conditions this week.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 8.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 23.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 53.0 yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
- Deebo Samuel’s possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 63.4% to 72.8%.
Cons
- The 49ers are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.7 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
