Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Falcons vs. Packers
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-130) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to garner 7.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
- Drake London has been a key part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 28.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
- Drake London has totaled a whopping 71.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among WRs.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
- Drake London has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 62.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
