Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Raiders
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Raiders are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 37.0 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a stellar 67.8% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 8.20 yards-per-target while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.15 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 9th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
