Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (+110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-125).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 18.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Josh Jacobs has been given 80.2% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Josh Jacobs has generated 97.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (100th percentile).
- Josh Jacobs’s ground effectiveness (4.88 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (78th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Raiders are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 96 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
