College Football Games of the Week: Week 7

This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best money-making opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

Penn State vs. Michigan

(Michigan -6.5, O/U 51.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Michigan has played like one of the best teams in college football this year. They have dismantled almost every opponent on their schedule so far, but not all of these are very impressive. Of Michigan’s six wins, three of them were against teams ranked 122nd or lower by SP+ with another ranked 84th.

However, in the two chances that Michigan has had against good teams, they have impressed there as well. Iowa has the No. 1 defense in the country per SP+ — Michigan was still able to post a 97th percentile success rate against them, but Iowa did have their best offensive game of the season by far. Michigan also had an 89th percentile success rate against Maryland but allowed a 79th percentile success rate on the other side. 

The Wolverines rank sixth in offensive success rate and 22nd in defensive success rate. Their biggest weakness has been run defense, where they rank 58th in success rate. J.J. McCarthy has been great since taking over at QB, averaging 0.50 EPA per play.

This Michigan offense seems to be elite, but the defense has some question marks after these performances and losing Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on the edge from last year’s team.

Penn State has not been quite as dynamic on offense. They rank 78th in offensive success rate and are a paltry 103rd in rushing success rate. Part of this is due to opponents that they have faced, but even adjusting for opponents, they are the 46th offense by SP+.

The Nittany Lions defense has been OK at defending the pass, ranking 44th in success rate, but they are all the way down at 102nd against the run. As discussed earlier with Michigan’s No. 6 rushing offense, this will likely cause problems for Penn State in this game. SP+ has this as the sixth best defense in the country nonetheless.

Two heavyweight offenses will be facing off between the Michigan offense and Penn State defense. On the other side of the ball, it appears that the Wolverines may have the clear advantage against Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lions.

I was able to find Michigan at -6.5 at FanDuel using the FTN Bets OddsPage. I love Michigan at -6.5, but I would take them at -7 as well. 

Pick: Michigan -6.5. Bet to -7

Alabama vs. Tennessee

(Alabama -7, O/U 65.5, BetMGM)

This may end up being one of the most pivotal games of the entire college football season. Tennessee has looked fantastic so far and absolutely throttled LSU last week. Alabama struggled with Texas A&M but escaped with a win at home despite playing without Bryce Young. If Tennessee can pull this upset off.

The Volunteers will be playing in front of a tremendous crowd and hosting College GameDay. They will also possess one of the best offenses in the entire country. Tennessee ranks 11th in the country in offensive success rate, 10th in passing success rate and 27th in rushing success rate. By SP+, this is the second-best offense in the country. 

The only problem is that Alabama’s defense may be equally as strong. Alabama’s defense is ranked second by SP+ and is 21st in defensive success rate. 

Nick Saban stated earlier this week that he is “hopeful” that Bryce Young can play this week after missing last week with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder. If Young is able to play, this Alabama offense should be back to being one of the best in the nation. Currently the Crimson Tide have the fourth-ranked offense by SP+.

Tennessee’s defense is the weak link in this game. They rank 96th in defensive success rate and are 86th against the pass. SP+ has this as the No. 39 defense in the country, which is what keeps them well behind Alabama in those rankings. 

I do think Tennessee has a chance to cover this spread and possibly even win, but I am much more confident in both of these offenses having a good day. Tennessee has gone over their team total in four of their five games this season, with the one miss being by half of a point. This total is already on the high side, but I think that we could see a shootout this weekend if Bryce Young plays, so I will take the over. If Young doesn’t play, then I will be smashing Tennessee as well.

The Pick: Over 65.5 Points. Bet to 66

Oklahoma State vs. TCU

(TCU -4, O/U 68.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

TCU picked up a big win against Kansas last weekend in one of the marquee games of the week after just demolishing Oklahoma as well. However, the question still remains to be answered around how good TCU really is.

Despite their success so far, TCU’s offense ranks 59th in offensive success rate. Max Duggan has been a revelation in Sonny Dykes new offense, averaging 0.60 EPA per dropback.

Oklahoma State has been slightly better at 48th in offensive success rate and they rank an impressive 25th in passing success rate. Spencer Sanders has been great under center, averaging 0.36 EPA per dropback. This offense is ranked 17th by SP+ and is among the top tier in the Big 12.

TCU’s defense has been suspect at times this season. They are ranked 60th by SP+ and are 48th in defensive success rate. In each of their last three games, the Horned Frogs have allowed 24 or more points, including in a game against Oklahoma where Dillon Gabriel was concussed. Kansas’ offense just posted an 86th percentile offensive success rate against TCU last week, also playing with a backup quarterback for a large portion of the game.

Oklahoma State’s defense is one of the better ones in the conference ranking 32nd in SP+ and 50th in defensive success rate this season. They have not been nearly as good this year though following the departure of Jim Knowles. In their first two conference games, Baylor and Texas Tech have both had relatively successful days, scoring 25 and 31 points, respectively. 

This spot just sets up perfectly to take the Cowboys. TCU has played well but is overrated by most after the last few weeks they have had. Coming off the high of last week, I would expect a letdown this weekend despite playing at home. I’ll take Mike Gundy’s squad to cover +3.5 and also outright.

The Pick: Oklahoma State ML +150