NBA DFS Preview - First Look (4/8)

With just a few days left in the NBA regular season, knowing which teams are playing for something and which teams aren’t is very important when building DFS lineups. And as each day goes by, we will have more and more teams resting players.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for April 8 | NBA DFS First Look

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons

MIL -5.5, total: 228.5
Pace: MIL (7th), DET (12th)

Situations to monitor:

Keep an eye on Milwaukee here. It wouldn’t shock me to see some key players rest for this game.
Marvin Bagley (hip) has been ruled out, while Cory Joseph is questionable.

New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards

WAS -1, total: 225.5
Pace: NYK (26th), WAS (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle remain out for New York.
Kyle Kuzma remains out for Washington.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -8, total: 232.5
Pace: CLE (28th), BKN (10th)

Situations to monitor:

Evan Mobley is expected to be a game-time decision for the Cavaliers, though he is expected to play. Jarrett Allen remains out.
For Brooklyn, Goran Dragic continues to deal with an illness, while Seth Curry (ankle) is listed as probable.

Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -11.5, total: 227.5
Pace: HOU (2nd), TOR (25th)

Situations to monitor:

OG Anunoby (thigh) will miss the next few games. Fred VanVleet rested Thursday but should be back for Friday’s game.

Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -2, total: 232.5
Pace: CHA (5th), CHI (16th)

Situations to monitor:

Gordon Hayward (foot) didn’t play Thursday. We’ll see if he can suit up Friday.
For Chicago, Zach LaVine is listed as probable. Alex Caruso (back) is listed as questionable.

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat

ATL -1.5, total: 228.5
Pace: ATL (19th), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

John Collins remains out for Atlanta.
For Miami, P.J. Tucker has been ruled out. Gabe Vincent (toe) is listed as questionable, along with Dewayne Dedmon (ankle).

Portland Trail Blazers @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -18, total: 220.5
Pace: POR (15th), DAL (30th)

Situations to monitor:

Maxi Kleber (ankle) is listed as questionable for Dallas.

Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz

UTA -2.5, total: 226.5
Pace: PHX (9th), UTA (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

None.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -5.5, total: 227
Pace: OKC (12th), LAL (6th)

Situations to monitor:

LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook all sat out Thursday and could be out for the remainder of the season.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Nikola Vucevic vs. Charlotte Hornets

Vucevic has been a bit underwhelming as of late but the combination of a price decrease and a stellar matchup with the Hornets has my attention. Per usual, Charlotte is struggling to defend opposing centers, coughing up the second-most points (25.5) and rebounds per game (17.66) to the position on the season. The Hornets are also allowing the third-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick-and-roll this season (1.21), while also surrendering the third-highest field goal percentage off the play type (57.6%). That bodes well for Vucevic, who is averaging 6.3 points per game as the roll man on the year, the highest number in the entire NBA. And in two meetings against Charlotte this season, Vucevic is averaging 24 points, 15 rebounds and 59 fantasy points per contest.

Pascal Siakam vs. Houston Rockets

Keep an eye on the Raptors. They are almost locked into the five-seed in the Eastern Conference and after resting Fred VanVleet on Thursday, it could be Siakam’s turn. If he is active, of course, he sets up very well. He’s been fantastic, especially as of late, averaging 54.5 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. Siakam has been doing everything for this team, including yesterday’s massive triple-double. He faces a poor Rockets defense that is surrendering the most points per game against transition on the season (24.9) and while the Raptors certainly don’t play at the fastest pace in the league, that hasn’t stopped Siakam from averaging 4.6 transition points per game on the year, good for the 12th-most in all of basketball. I expect Siakam to thrive once again but if he does rest for this game, feel free to pivot to Scottie Barnes, Fred VanVleet or Chris Boucher. The matchup against Houston is too favorable.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Talen Horton-Tucker vs. OKC — With James, Davis and Westbrook out Thursday, THT dominated for the Lakers, scoring a career-high 40 points. He posted a massive 37.4% usage rate in the game and despite his huge showing, the price tag actually dropped below $4,000 on DraftKings. Assuming Los Angeles’ stars don’t return to action today, Horton-Tucker will likely be the most popular play of the slate.

Jericho Sims vs. WAS — New York remains without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel in the frontcourt, leading to huge minutes from both Obi Toppin and Sims. With Robinson and Randle off the floor this season, Sims is sporting a 25% rebounding rate.