NBA DFS Preview - First Look (2/15)

Tuesday presents a seven-game NBA DFS slate with plenty to keep track of. Like we do every day, let’s take an early look at the slate and see what stands out.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for February 15 | NBA DFS First Look

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

CLE -1.5, total: 220
Pace: CLE (22nd), ATL (14th)

Situations to monitor:

John Collins (foot) will remain sidelined for the Hawks. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) is listed as questionable.
For Cleveland, Lauri Markkanen (ankle) will miss his 11th consecutive contest.

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

MIA -3.5, total: 209.5
Pace: DAL (28th), MIA (27th)

Situations to monitor:

Jimmy Butler (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Miami. Tyler Herro, meanwhile, has already been ruled out.

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

BOS -2, total: 210
Pace: BOS (21st), PHI (26th)

Situations to monitor:

James Harden won’t make his Philadelphia debut until after the All-Star break.

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -12.5, total: 233.5
Pace: IND (14th), MIL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle) sat out the front end of a back-to-back Monday.
For the Pacers, Chris Duarte has been ruled out with a toe injury. Meanwhile, Malcolm Brogdon is once again listed as questionable. Isaiah Jackson has also been ruled out again with an ankle injury.

Charlotte Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -6, total: 245
Pace: CHA (1st), MIN (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

Gordon Hayward and Cody Martin will remain sidelined for Charlotte.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans

MEM -4, total: 228.5
Pace: MEM (3rd), NOP (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

Ja Morant is listed as questionable with left ankle soreness.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -13, total: 223.5
Pace: LAC (16th), PHX (6th)

Situations to monitor:

None.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Darius Garland is averaging 7.7 points per game as the primary pick-and-roll ball-handler this season

That is good for 13th in all of basketball, while his 40.5% frequency rate off the play type is above league average. He is also shooting nearly 49% from the field out of the play type. Garland has been removed from the injury report, which tells me his back isn’t bothering him at the moment. His price has come all the way down to just $7,400 on DraftKings, which is just too cheap for Garland, who is sporting a 27% usage rate and 23% assist rate on the season, while also averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute. An individual matchup with Trae Young’s defense is about as good as it gets and according to FTN’s advanced DVP tool, the Hawks rank 26th against primary ball-handlers on the year.

Deandre Ayton is averaging 5.8 points per game as the roll man this season

Only Nikola Vucevic of the Bulls is averaging more points per game off the play type this year. Ayton’s minutes have been a tad underwhelming as of late but three of those contests ended up as blowouts, while a fourth was due to foul trouble. And at his current price tag, you don’t need 33-35 minutes from Ayton, who is just $6,600 on DraftKings ahead of this matchup with the Clippers, who are coughing up the eighth-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (1.14). Meanwhile, Ayton is fourth in basketball in such possessions per game this season (4.3), while shooting an absurd 72.9% from the field off the play type. He is also averaging an impressive 1.37 points per possession out of the pick and roll. I love Ayton but also think you can pair him with Chris Paul.

Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 106 touches per game in his first two contests with the Pacers

Haliburton hasn’t missed a beat since joining his new team, scoring 40.7 and 57.2 fantasy points in his first two games. During that span, he is averaging a gaudy 106 touches per game, while also averaging eight minutes of possession per game. The ball has been in his hands a ton and I don’t see that changing anytime soon, especially with Chris Duarte ruled out ahead of Tuesday’s contest. A matchup with Milwaukee definitely isn’t the best in the league but the volume and minutes are all I care about.

Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 2.5 putback points per game this season

That is good for eighth in the league. Towns finds himself in a stellar spot, facing a Charlotte team that has been awful at slowing down opposing centers for essentially two or three years now. The Hornets are coughing up a league-leading 7.7 points per game off putbacks this season, while also allowing a 62.6% field goal percentage from within six feet of the basket, good for the seventh-highest rate in the NBA to this point. Towns should be able to do whatever he wants against this frontcourt and in a game featuring two of the fastest-paced teams in basketball, there is a serious ceiling here.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Jalen Smith vs. MIL — Like Haliburton, Smith also recently joined the Pacers and has been productive, scoring 19.2 and 36 fantasy points in 21 and 23 minutes. The absences of Isaiah Jackson and Myles Turner should continue to lead to 20-23 minutes for Smith, which keeps him firmly on the radar as a value play.