Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bengals vs. Falcons
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 18.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has averaged 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (79th percentile).
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has produced the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 4.85 yards-per-carry.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-least run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 33.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his team’s running game this week (71.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.9% in games he has played).
- Joe Mixon’s ground efficiency (3.38 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (7th percentile among running backs).
- Joe Mixon has been less successful in picking up extra running yardage this year, totaling 2.06 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.09 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
