Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Curtis SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Commanders vs. Packers
Right now, Curtis Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to total 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his offense’s air attack this season (22.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.8%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
- Curtis Samuel has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging just 6.56 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 19th percentile among WRs
- The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 129.0) versus wideouts this year.
- The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
