Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-129) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Dalton Schultz has run a route on 78.0% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to garner 6.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
- Dalton Schultz’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 76.3% to 70.6%.
- Dalton Schultz’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching a measly 6.12 yards-per-target vs a 8.14 figure last year.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
