Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
- The predictive model expects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- As it relates to air yards, A.J. Brown ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a remarkable 104.0 per game.
- A.J. Brown’s 72.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 98th percentile for WRs.
- A.J. Brown has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 82.0 yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The projections expect the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Washington’s collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
