Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 15.8 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 57.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (82nd percentile).
Cons
- The Patriots rank as the 5th-least run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 33.5% run rate.
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s running efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 2.91 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.77 rate last season.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been worse at grinding out extra running yardage this season, accumulating 1.67 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.81 rate last season.
- The New York Jets defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 4.22 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
