Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chiefs vs. Bears
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+107/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-139) after it opened @ 39.5 (-113).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Khalil Herbert’s ground effectiveness (5.16 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (97th percentile among RBs).
- Khalil Herbert has been among the leading RBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.59 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 97th percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The Bears are a huge 12.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 105 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
