Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chiefs vs. Bears
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (+102) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to notch 8.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 25.2% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has accumulated a whopping 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- Travis Kelce’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 46.9%.
- Travis Kelce’s receiving efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating just 3.56 yards-per-target compared to a 9.08 rate last season.
- The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
