Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-105/-124).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-105) after it opened @ 22.5 (-112).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Noah Fant has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 11.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 77th percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has posted a monstrous 25.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among tight ends.
- Noah Fant has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 29.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.01 seconds per snap.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has given up the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.73 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
