Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Schultz from EV Insight

Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-106) after it opened @ 34.5 (-119).

Pros

The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to notch 5.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
Dalton Schultz has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 18.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.1% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Dalton Schultz’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 64.7% to 55.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards