Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.9% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Adam Thielen has been among the worst wide receivers in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.16 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 14th percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
