Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chiefs vs. Bears
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 274.5 (+110) after it opened @ 283.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.4 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 317.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- Patrick Mahomes’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.7% to 60.3%.
- Patrick Mahomes’s passing efficiency has worsened this season, totaling a mere 6.34 yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
273
Passing Yards
273
Passing Yards
