Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 209.5 (-115) after it opened @ 223.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Mac Jones’s passing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.5% to 72.0%.
- The New York Jets defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 6.84 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
208
Passing Yards
208
Passing Yards
