Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 209.5 (-110) after it opened @ 216.5 (-114).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 67.3 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Lamar Jackson has been among the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.78 yards-per-target while ranking in the 85th percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 117.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 27.8 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 198.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
188
Passing Yards