Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 283.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 283.5 (-121) after it opened @ 282.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.4 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 35.3 passes this week, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.
Cons
- The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards
271
Passing Yards
