Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 237.5 (-110) after it opened @ 234.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-most yards in the league (237.0 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.55 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.1% pass rate.
- The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards
