Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tyler Allgeier from EV Insight

Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards

Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-110).

Pros

The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to accrue 19.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Tyler Allgeier has picked up 61.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (84th percentile).

Cons

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards