Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
49ers vs. Cardinals
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 69.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to garner 5.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a terrific 9.37 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 94th percentile.
- George Kittle has been among the best tight ends in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 87th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the league (65.0) versus tight ends this year.
Cons
- The 49ers are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- George Kittle has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (48.0 per game).
- George Kittle’s 40.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 46.2.
- George Kittle has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
