Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. 49ers
Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-115) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -14-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect Jacoby Brissett to attempt 38.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the most among all QBs.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
- Jacoby Brissett has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with a fantastic 66.3% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This year, the fierce 49ers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a measly 6.9 yards.
- The 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
- As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco’s LB corps has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
243
Passing Yards
243
Passing Yards
