Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+102/-134).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-134) after it opened @ 49.5 (-113).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (84th percentile).
As it relates to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh’s unit has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Cons

The Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning.
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 39.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to be a less important option in his team’s running game in this contest (55.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.3% in games he has played).
When it comes to opening holes for runners (and the influence it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards